impossible numbers for metal detectorists online in Ukraine and possible explanations

One of the reasons that I have been so quiet is that I have been trying to fathom the depths of some bewildering material (in relation to the subject of this post and other cases).

As part of my ongoing analysis of metal detecting (an open-source analysis of quantitative data), I have gathered evidence of more than 100,000 treasure-hunters in the Central-Eastern European region of Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine. However, I have also found evidence of impossible numbers in communities for Ukraine, which cannot easily be explained.

A plain English summary of the data

Belarusian and Polish communities grew by ranges from fewer than a hundred to more than a thousand, at rates of fewer than five persons per day. Russian communities grew by thousands, at rates of between ten and twenty persons per day.

Although Ukrainian communities started with populations that differed by thousands or even tens of thousands, one “pair” grew by the same, far larger number of around 16,000, at the same, far higher rate of around 53-54 persons per day; another “pair” grew by the same, even larger number of around 163,000-164,000 at the same, even higher rate of around 533-536 persons per day, which is obviously exactly ten times higher. This happened, even though the smaller “pair” are administered by different groups.

The full document, with the painful details of the data, including more tables and graphs, as well as evaluations of possible explanations, is available as a doc file.

illicit antiquities trade metal detecting EE 170818 recent growth rates

illicit antiquities trade metal detecting EE 170714 trendlines

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